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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Talon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 27 games
78%
Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 26 games
38%
Tusk
Tusk
OmaR · 23 games
57%
Magnus
Magnussignature
No!ob · 20 games
65%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
SumaiL · 19 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
OmaR · 19 games
68%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 18 games
56%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
GH · 17 games
65%

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 27 games
74%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 26 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kuku · 26 games
58%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 23 games
78%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mikoto · 23 games
61%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 19 games
47%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ws · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
495 picks · 490 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
438 picks · 562 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
417 picks · 199 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
321 picks · 571 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
281 picks · 395 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
279 picks · 168 bans
48%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
273 picks · 585 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
266 picks · 468 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% Talon Esports
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total50% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:8
Nigma Galaxy 49%Talon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 33:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerGhost
51% · 27 games44% · 178 games
Terrorblade23savage
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckSumaiL
50% · 181 game45% · 243 games
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNo!ob
54% · 172 games56% · 135 games
Dark SeerWs
Dark Seer
Silencer
SilencerGH
48% · 83 games57% · 114 games
MiranaKuku
Mirana
Tusk
Tuskyamich
47% · 282 games51% · 75 games
Shadow ShamanJhocam
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct15:40
Nigma Galaxy 49%Talon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 44:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyGhost
49% · 301 game47% · 85 games
Razor23savage
Razor
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSumaiL
42% · 69 games52% · 268 games
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawNo!ob
47% · 99 games42% · 115 games
KunkkaWs
Kunkka
Naga Siren
Naga SirenGH
63% · 69 games54% · 74 games
SlarkJhocam
Slark
Magnus
Magnusyamich
51% · 120 games57% · 116 games
Shadow ShamanKuku
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction missed15:25
Nigma Galaxy 52%Talon Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 34:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc WardenSumaiL
little data49% · 109 games
Medusa23savage
Medusa
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerGhost
47% · 32 games51% · 212 games
TinyMikoto
Tiny
Doom
DoomNo!ob
55% · 342 games48% · 100 games
Centaur WarrunnerWs
Centaur Warrunner
Earthshaker
Earthshakeryamich
52% · 163 games49% · 161 game
JakiroKuku
Jakiro
Silencer
SilencerGH
49% · 188 games45% · 143 games
TuskJhocam
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 50%
Series resultTalon Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3