DreamLeague Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 27 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 26 games
Phoenix
Kuku · 26 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Mikoto · 23 games
Linasignature
Mikoto · 21 game
Tinyoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 19 games
Doomsignature
Ws · 18 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Muertasignature
tOfu · 31 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 24 games
Jakiro
Malady · 23 games
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 21 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 16 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Quinn · 16 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Ace · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
498 picks · 491 bans
Tiny
435 picks · 568 bans
Ringmaster
413 picks · 197 bans
Terrorblade
320 picks · 568 bans
Storm Spirit
280 picks · 397 bans
Tusk
276 picks · 166 bans
Ancient Apparition
271 picks · 581 bans
Ember Spirit
265 picks · 472 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total79% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:7
Talon Esports 32%Gaimin Gladiators 68%
The model gave 68% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 31:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa23savage
DoomWatson
LinaMikoto
TidehunterAce
Centaur WarrunnerWs
Storm SpiritQuinn
TuskJhocam
MuertatOfu
Nature's ProphetKuku
OmniknightMalady
Game 2prediction missed29:25
Talon Esports 32%Gaimin Gladiators 68%
The model gave 68% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 52:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaMikoto
DoomAce
Kunkka23savage
UrsaWatson
BeastmasterWs
Monkey KingQuinn
MagnusJhocam
RubicktOfu
SilencerKuku
RingmasterMalady
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 79%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2