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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brothersloss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
BoBoKa · 23 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
天命 · 20 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 20 games
75%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Emo · 19 games
42%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
zeal · 18 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BoBoKa · 17 games
65%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 17 games
65%
Batrider
Batrider
BoBoKa · 15 games
40%

Nigma Galaxy

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 26 games
77%
Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 26 games
38%
Tusk
Tusk
OmaR · 22 games
55%
Magnus
Magnussignature
No!ob · 20 games
65%
Tiny
Tinysignature
OmaR · 19 games
68%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
SumaiL · 18 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 18 games
56%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
GH · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
498 picks · 494 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
435 picks · 573 bans
49%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
412 picks · 197 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
318 picks · 569 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
282 picks · 395 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
276 picks · 165 bans
48%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
271 picks · 578 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
266 picks · 474 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:11
Yakult Brothers 52%Nigma Galaxy 48%
The model gave 52% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 47:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertaflyfly
49% · 287 games50% · 354 games
Dragon KnightGhost
Dragon Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritEmo
50% · 237 games43% · 105 games
LeshracSumaiL
Leshrac
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBEYOND
52% · 171 game53% · 229 games
DoomNo!ob
Doom
Magnus
MagnusBoBoKa
57% · 195 games47% · 105 games
Shadow Shamanyamich
Shadow Shaman
Silencer
SilencerOli
49% · 76 games50% · 173 games
PugnaGH
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed33:38
Yakult Brothers 52%Nigma Galaxy 48%
The model gave 52% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 1:02:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingflyfly
52% · 312 games48% · 336 games
TerrorbladeGhost
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEmo
50% · 270 games56% · 296 games
PuckSumaiL
Puck
Phoenix
PhoenixBEYOND
45% · 351 game56% · 219 games
Centaur WarrunnerNo!ob
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
BatriderBoBoKa
48% · 294 games49% · 196 games
Elder TitanGH
Elder Titan
Ringmaster
RingmasterOli
48% · 202 games47% · 382 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed49:61
Yakult Brothers 52%Nigma Galaxy 48%
The model gave 52% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 1:22:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeflyfly
46% · 192 games47% · 94 games
KunkkaGhost
Kunkka
Pangolier
PangolierBEYOND
41% · 281 game58% · 71 game
TinkerSumaiL
Tinker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritEmo
55% · 36 games52% · 285 games
BristlebackNo!ob
Bristleback
Batrider
BatriderBoBoKa
50% · 235 games49% · 246 games
Dark WillowGH
Dark Willow
Elder Titan
Elder TitanOli
59% · 95 games47% · 143 games
Earthshakeryamich
Earthshaker
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 52%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3