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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PARIVISIONwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 27 games
74%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 25 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 25 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mikoto · 22 games
64%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 21 game
76%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 19 games
47%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ws · 18 games
61%

PARIVISION

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 35 games
80%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 29 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 27 games
81%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Satanic · 26 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 24 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No[o]ne · 23 games
65%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 22 games
77%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
No[o]ne · 22 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
498 picks · 495 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
436 picks · 574 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
411 picks · 196 bans
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
317 picks · 568 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
280 picks · 395 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
277 picks · 165 bans
48%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
271 picks · 575 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
264 picks · 476 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total89% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:14
Talon Esports 26%PARIVISION 74%
The model gave 74% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 40:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMikoto
43% · 141 game46% · 103 games
MedusaSatanic
Medusa
Kunkka
Kunkka23savage
45% · 118 games49% · 215 games
BeastmasterDM
Beastmaster
Tidehunter
TidehunterWs
57% · 132 games55% · 153 games
Ember SpiritNo[o]ne
Ember Spirit
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKuku
55% · 117 games51% · 112 games
Dark Willow9Class
Dark Willow
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanJhocam
49% · 98 games53% · 23 games
DisruptorDukalis
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct12:29
Talon Esports 26%PARIVISION 74%
The model gave 74% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 30:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMikoto
55% · 300 games52% · 256 games
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
Storm Spirit
Abaddon
Abaddon23savage
46% · 86 games52% · 141 game
WeaverSatanic
Weaver
Slardar
SlardarWs
48% · 124 games53% · 276 games
BristlebackDM
Bristleback
Phoenix
PhoenixKuku
52% · 327 games44% · 160 games
Dark Willow9Class
Dark Willow
Ringmaster
RingmasterJhocam
49% · 144 games49% · 148 games
Nature's ProphetDukalis
Nature's Prophet
Game 3prediction correct14:32
Talon Esports 24%PARIVISION 76%
The model gave 76% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 41:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter23savage
52% · 249 games47% · 333 games
TerrorbladeSatanic
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
50% · 289 games57% · 266 games
Dark SeerDM
Dark Seer
Magnus
MagnusWs
50% · 177 games53% · 380 games
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
Storm Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroKuku
48% · 296 games48% · 173 games
Night Stalker9Class
Night Stalker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowJhocam
44% · 169 games55% · 28 games
OracleDukalis
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 89%
Series resultPARIVISION 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3