DreamLeague Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Muertasignature
tOfu · 31 game
Jakiro
Malady · 23 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 23 games
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 20 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 16 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Quinn · 16 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Ace · 16 games
Nigma Galaxy
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 26 games
Phoenix
GH · 25 games
Tusk
OmaR · 22 games
Magnussignature
No!ob · 20 games
Tinysignature
OmaR · 19 games
Earthshaker
SumaiL · 17 games
Elder Titansignature
GH · 16 games
Iosignature
GH · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
499 picks · 495 bans
Tiny
436 picks · 576 bans
Ringmaster
410 picks · 196 bans
Terrorblade
316 picks · 567 bans
Storm Spirit
278 picks · 394 bans
Tusk
277 picks · 163 bans
Ancient Apparition
271 picks · 572 bans
Ember Spirit
264 picks · 475 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total76% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:24
Gaimin Gladiators 63%Nigma Galaxy 37%
The model gave 63% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 28:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
HuskarQuinn
MorphlingGhost
WeaverWatson
Keeper of the LightSumaiL
PangolierAce
MarsNo!ob
GyrocoptertOfu
Naga SirenGH
BrewmasterMalady
Earthshakeryamich
Game 2prediction correct38:22
Gaimin Gladiators 64%Nigma Galaxy 36%
The model gave 64% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 42:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomWatson
Shadow FiendGhost
Dark SeerAce
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Storm SpiritQuinn
Vengeful SpiritNo!ob
ClockwerktOfu
Naga SirenGH
RingmasterMalady
Shadow Shamanyamich
Game 3prediction correct34:8
Gaimin Gladiators 65%Nigma Galaxy 35%
The model gave 65% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 32:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeWatson
MorphlingGhost
Storm SpiritQuinn
Outworld DestroyerSumaiL
AxeAce
PangolierNo!ob
Nature's ProphettOfu
PhoenixGH
Ogre MagiMalady
Centaur Warrunneryamich
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 76%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3