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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 25 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 22 games
55%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Nightfall · 22 games
59%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 22 games
77%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 19 games
58%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 17 games
76%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 16 games
75%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Mira · 15 games
47%

Shopify Rebellion

Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 20 games
70%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 17 games
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Timado · 16 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 15 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 14 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Timado · 13 games
54%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Hellscream · 13 games
69%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Yopaj · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
503 picks · 494 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
432 picks · 576 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
400 picks · 190 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
310 picks · 561 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
279 picks · 389 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
272 picks · 161 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
263 picks · 559 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
263 picks · 475 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:37
Aurora Gaming 53%Shopify Rebellion 47%
The model gave 53% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 52:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
52% · 376 games44% · 198 games
TerrorbladeTimado
Terrorblade
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNightfall
45% · 211 games47% · 397 games
TinyYopaj
Tiny
Magnus
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
52% · 299 games51% · 270 games
MuertaHellscream
Muerta
Techies
TechiesMira
49% · 47 games58% · 129 games
EnigmaDavai
Enigma
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPanto
54% · 168 games46% · 107 games
Elder TitanSkem
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct23:34
Aurora Gaming 52%Shopify Rebellion 48%
The model gave 52% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 50:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerkiyotaka
51% · 122 games45% · 274 games
TerrorbladeTimado
Terrorblade
Tiny
TinyNightfall
43% · 396 games57% · 208 games
Sand KingYopaj
Sand King
Tidehunter
TidehunterTORONTOTOKYO
45% · 130 games63% · 149 games
EnigmaDavai
Enigma
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
49% · 130 games47% · 176 games
RingmasterHellscream
Ringmaster
Warlock
WarlockPanto
41% · 158 games62% · 129 games
Ancient ApparitionSkem
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2