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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 33 games
79%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 28 games
68%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 27 games
78%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Satanic · 26 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
DM · 25 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No[o]ne · 23 games
65%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 21 game
76%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
No[o]ne · 21 game
57%

Natus Vincere Junior

Phoenix
Phoenix
Riddys · 31 game
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Niku · 29 games
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
gotthejuice · 25 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
pma · 25 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 23 games
52%
Lich
Lichsignature
Riddys · 21 game
62%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
65%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
499 picks · 495 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
430 picks · 574 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
393 picks · 189 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
307 picks · 558 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
278 picks · 389 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
272 picks · 159 bans
49%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
264 picks · 516 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
261 picks · 475 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:6
PARIVISION 71%Natus Vincere Junior 29%
The model gave 71% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 26:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSatanic
43% · 289 games55% · 192 games
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
Gyrocopter
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerNo[o]ne
39% · 31 game51% · 119 games
Timbersawpma
Timbersaw
Sand King
Sand KingDM
46% · 269 games51% · 230 games
Ember SpiritNiku
Ember Spirit
Slark
Slark9Class
49% · 71 game62% · 109 games
Ancient ApparitionRiddys
Ancient Apparition
Warlock
WarlockDukalis
46% · 155 games56% · 165 games
RingmasterZayac
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct34:30
PARIVISION 74%Natus Vincere Junior 26%
The model gave 74% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 45:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSatanic
45% · 208 games47% · 118 games
Ursagotthejuice
Ursa
Sniper
SniperNo[o]ne
48% · 102 games46% · 108 games
Medusapma
Medusa
Sand King
Sand KingDM
57% · 286 games49% · 284 games
TinyNiku
Tiny
Slark
Slark9Class
51% · 114 games48% · 351 game
JakiroRiddys
Jakiro
Ringmaster
RingmasterDukalis
55% · 239 games54% · 88 games
EarthshakerZayac
Earthshaker
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 86%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2