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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 24 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 22 games
55%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Nightfall · 22 games
59%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 21 game
76%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 19 games
58%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 16 games
75%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Nightfall · 14 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 14 games
71%

Xtreme Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ame · 28 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
XinQ · 23 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
天命 · 22 games
64%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Poloson · 21 game
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Xxs · 21 game
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 20 games
55%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 20 games
70%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
天命 · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
500 picks · 494 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
429 picks · 574 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
391 picks · 189 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
306 picks · 556 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
276 picks · 389 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
270 picks · 159 bans
49%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
265 picks · 514 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
263 picks · 475 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total53% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:16
Aurora Gaming 50%Xtreme Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 34:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaTORONTOTOKYO
44% · 148 games56% · 260 games
Monkey KingXm
Monkey King
Tiny
TinyNightfall
49% · 397 games47% · 143 games
LifestealerAme
Lifestealer
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
47% · 245 games55% · 206 games
MagnusXxs
Magnus
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
42% · 92 games59% · 197 games
Ancient ApparitionPoloson
Ancient Apparition
Ringmaster
RingmasterPanto
48% · 129 games53% · 205 games
Dark WillowXinQ
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct32:18
Aurora Gaming 53%Xtreme Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 39:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerNightfall
53% · 79 games45% · 210 games
TerrorbladeAme
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
51% · 248 games48% · 157 games
PuckXm
Puck
Magnus
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
53% · 177 games41% · 168 games
Sand KingXxs
Sand King
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPanto
60% · 156 games45% · 72 games
TinkerPoloson
Tinker
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMira
55% · 114 games48% · 167 games
RingmasterXinQ
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 53%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2