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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
Edgeloss 0:2
series probability
6%94%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Edge

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Yadomi · 8 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
Michael · 7 games
29%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Vitaly · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
PiPi · 6 games
17%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Yadomi · 5 games
20%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 5 games
20%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
25%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Yadomi · 4 games
25%

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 44 games
48%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 42 games
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 35 games
54%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Cr1t- · 27 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 27 games
44%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Skiter · 26 games
46%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sneyking · 22 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
500 picks · 492 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
422 picks · 572 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
386 picks · 185 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
298 picks · 553 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
276 picks · 384 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
267 picks · 157 bans
49%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
263 picks · 514 bans
52%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
260 picks · 680 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 47%
Hero pool strength59% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:26
Edge 19%Team Falcons 81%
The model gave 81% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 36:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinpayk
46% · 179 games54% · 196 games
TimbersawMalr1ne
Timbersaw
Tiny
TinyPiPi
49% · 470 games44% · 343 games
TerrorbladeSkiter
Terrorblade
Sand King
Sand KingVitaly
50% · 248 games43% · 477 games
PangolierATF
Pangolier
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionYadomi
54% · 99 games56% · 99 games
RikiCr1t-
Riki
Muerta
MuertaMichael
45% · 301 game60% · 182 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct31:25
Edge 19%Team Falcons 81%
The model gave 81% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:04:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladepayk
47% · 295 games44% · 83 games
LifestealerSkiter
Lifestealer
Kunkka
KunkkaPiPi
50% · 142 games49% · 243 games
BeastmasterMalr1ne
Beastmaster
Slardar
SlardarVitaly
49% · 118 games45% · 97 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Ringmaster
RingmasterYadomi
52% · 156 games54% · 196 games
MuertaSneyking
Muerta
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMichael
60% · 97 games50% · 189 games
TuskCr1t-
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 94%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2