DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARIVISION
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 33 games
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 27 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 26 games
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 26 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
Satanic · 25 games
Enigmasignature
DM · 23 games
Tinysignature
No[o]ne · 23 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
No[o]ne · 22 games
AVULUS
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 42 games
Batrider
Ekki · 25 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 25 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Ekki · 24 games
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 22 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Xibbe · 20 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Smiling Knight · 20 games
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
500 picks · 492 bans
Tiny
422 picks · 572 bans
Ringmaster
386 picks · 185 bans
Terrorblade
298 picks · 553 bans
Storm Spirit
276 picks · 384 bans
Tusk
267 picks · 157 bans
Phantom Assassin
263 picks · 514 bans
Dark Seer
260 picks · 680 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 38%
Hero pool strength59% PARIVISION
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total91% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:37
PARIVISION 77%AVULUS 23%
The model gave 77% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 1:16:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaSatanic
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
ViperMo13ei
Sand KingDM
TinkerFly
JakiroDukalis
EnigmaXibbe
Slark9Class
TinydEsire
Game 2prediction correct22:29
PARIVISION 77%AVULUS 23%
The model gave 77% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 49:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinSatanic
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
TinkerNo[o]ne
ViperMo13ei
BristlebackDM
EnigmaXibbe
WarlockDukalis
TinydEsire
Magnus9Class
RingmasterFly
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 91%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2