?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 27 games
74%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 25 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 25 games
60%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 21 game
76%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mikoto · 21 game
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 19 games
47%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ws · 17 games
59%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mikoto · 17 games
53%

Natus Vincere Junior

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 30 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Niku · 28 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
gotthejuice · 25 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 23 games
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
pma · 23 games
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 21 game
67%
Lich
Lichsignature
Riddys · 21 game
62%
Puck
Pucksignature
Niku · 20 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
499 picks · 491 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
417 picks · 572 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
379 picks · 184 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
296 picks · 549 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
274 picks · 382 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
265 picks · 156 bans
49%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
263 picks · 514 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
260 picks · 144 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total62% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:11
Talon Esports 42%Natus Vincere Junior 58%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 34:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusa23savage
50% · 147 games53% · 187 games
Nature's Prophetgotthejuice
Nature's Prophet
Tiny
TinyMikoto
51% · 464 games46% · 427 games
Beastmasterpma
Beastmaster
Magnus
MagnusWs
59% · 172 games49% · 375 games
Ember SpiritNiku
Ember Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroKuku
49% · 339 games44% · 91 game
Bounty HunterZayac
Bounty Hunter
Ringmaster
RingmasterJhocam
51% · 153 games47% · 195 games
Elder TitanRiddys
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed34:8
Talon Esports 42%Natus Vincere Junior 58%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 30:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razor23savage
42% · 138 games49% · 462 games
Tinygotthejuice
Tiny
Doom
DoomWs
51% · 322 games53% · 324 games
Storm SpiritNiku
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
48% · 423 games58% · 197 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Jakiro
JakiroKuku
50% · 360 games48% · 307 games
PhoenixRiddys
Phoenix
Ringmaster
RingmasterJhocam
47% · 164 games54% · 117 games
Nyx AssassinZayac
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 62%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2