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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Edgeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 42 games
50%
Batrider
Batrider
Ekki · 25 games
40%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 25 games
44%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ekki · 23 games
65%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 22 games
77%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Xibbe · 20 games
45%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Smiling Knight · 20 games
55%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 20 games
75%

Edge

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Yadomi · 7 games
57%
Muerta
Muerta
Michael · 6 games
33%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Vitaly · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
PiPi · 6 games
17%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Yadomi · 5 games
20%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 5 games
20%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
25%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Michael · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
496 picks · 491 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
416 picks · 569 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
376 picks · 183 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
293 picks · 547 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
273 picks · 380 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
265 picks · 155 bans
49%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
262 picks · 514 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
257 picks · 143 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 33%
Hero pool strength58% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:44
AVULUS 62%Edge 38%
The model gave 62% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 1:11:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSmiling Knight
49% · 262 games52% · 143 games
Lunapayk
Luna
Muerta
MuertadEsire
43% · 226 games47% · 406 games
Storm SpiritPiPi
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMo13ei
49% · 294 games53% · 358 games
Sand KingVitaly
Sand King
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerXibbe
54% · 192 games54% · 152 games
Keeper of the LightMichael
Keeper of the Light
Jakiro
JakiroFly
44% · 308 games54% · 223 games
Elder TitanYadomi
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct26:14
AVULUS 64%Edge 36%
The model gave 64% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 40:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
48% · 288 games48% · 306 games
MorphlingPiPi
Morphling
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMo13ei
52% · 319 games46% · 149 games
Abaddonpayk
Abaddon
Tidehunter
TidehunterXibbe
53% · 130 games50% · 124 games
KunkkaVitaly
Kunkka
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamandEsire
54% · 115 games52% · 315 games
MuertaMichael
Muerta
Jakiro
JakiroFly
51% · 304 games46% · 262 games
RingmasterYadomi
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 73%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2