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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:0
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Falconsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
天命 · 22 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
天命 · 20 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 19 games
74%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Emo · 19 games
42%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
zeal · 17 games
47%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 16 games
69%
Batrider
Batrider
BoBoKa · 15 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 15 games
53%

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 44 games
48%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 40 games
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 35 games
54%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Cr1t- · 27 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 27 games
44%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Skiter · 26 games
46%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sneyking · 22 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
496 picks · 491 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
416 picks · 569 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
376 picks · 183 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
293 picks · 547 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
273 picks · 380 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
265 picks · 155 bans
49%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
262 picks · 514 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
257 picks · 143 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total83% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:17
Yakult Brothers 32%Team Falcons 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 38:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursaflyfly
43% · 103 games45% · 171 game
SvenSkiter
Sven
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEmo
49% · 209 games47% · 113 games
EarthshakerMalr1ne
Earthshaker
Dark Seer
Dark SeerBEYOND
52% · 182 games53% · 168 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoBoKa
50% · 66 games57% · 56 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanOli
51% · 93 games53% · 145 games
RingmasterCr1t-
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed37:11
Yakult Brothers 31%Team Falcons 69%
The model gave 69% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 31:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingflyfly
46% · 257 games50% · 154 games
Phantom AssassinSkiter
Phantom Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEmo
52% · 265 games53% · 258 games
Sand KingMalr1ne
Sand King
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBEYOND
54% · 133 games54% · 239 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoBoKa
47% · 86 games48% · 83 games
Shadow ShamanCr1t-
Shadow Shaman
Silencer
SilencerOli
46% · 119 games50% · 126 games
WarlockSneyking
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 83%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2