The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTBthe bugwin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GG Boomloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
the bug
Batrideroften banned
Newsham · 3 games
Axeoften banned
MTD · 2 games
Centaur Warrunner
iAnnihilate · 2 games
Ogre Magi
empyrean5 · 2 games
Rubick
Newsham · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 2 games
Viperoften banned
Boris · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
GG Boom
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
640 picks · 443 bans
Rubick
599 picks · 339 bans
Pangolier
456 picks · 658 bans
Phoenix
448 picks · 524 bans
Tiny
393 picks · 350 bans
Storm Spirit
343 picks · 389 bans
Ember Spirit
341 picks · 499 bans
Puck
320 picks · 986 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% the bug
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total51% the bug
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:13
the bug 51%GG Boom 49%
The model gave 51% on the bug — the game was taken by the bug in 46:01.
Game 2prediction correct51:23
the bug 51%GG Boom 49%
The model gave 51% on the bug — the game was taken by the bug in 42:50.
Model check result
Model favoritethe bug · 51%
Series resultthe bug 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2