?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 39 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 36 games
75%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 29 games
72%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 26 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 25 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
miCKe · 20 games
45%
Phoenix
Phoenix
iNSaNiA · 20 games
50%

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 23 games
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 22 games
55%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 20 games
60%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 20 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 19 games
58%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 14 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 14 games
71%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
496 picks · 490 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 566 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
373 picks · 180 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
290 picks · 545 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
271 picks · 378 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
263 picks · 154 bans
48%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
261 picks · 514 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
257 picks · 144 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total56% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:45
Team Liquid 53%Aurora Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 37:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeV-Tune
45% · 165 games60% · 229 games
DoomNightfall
Doom
Puck
PuckNisha
50% · 126 games53% · 107 games
Tinkerkiyotaka
Tinker
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
46% · 97 games48% · 234 games
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
Magnus
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinBoxi
50% · 90 games50% · 57 games
RikiMira
Riki
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
42% · 169 games64% · 20 games
BanePanto
Bane
Game 2prediction missed28:35
Team Liquid 52%Aurora Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 47:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingV-Tune
46% · 177 games57% · 63 games
Tinkerkiyotaka
Tinker
Invoker
InvokerNisha
49% · 102 games49% · 61 game
AbaddonNightfall
Abaddon
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
45% · 62 games56% · 166 games
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
Magnus
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanBoxi
46% · 91 game51% · 130 games
RingmasterMira
Ringmaster
Silencer
SilenceriNSaNiA
45% · 117 games57% · 129 games
Elder TitanPanto
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 56%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2