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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Edgewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 30 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Niku · 27 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
gotthejuice · 25 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
pma · 23 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 22 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 21 game
67%
Lich
Lichsignature
Riddys · 21 game
62%
Puck
Pucksignature
Niku · 20 games
75%

Edge

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Yadomi · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
PiPi · 6 games
17%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 5 games
20%
Muerta
Muerta
Michael · 5 games
20%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Yadomi · 4 games
0%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
25%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Michael · 4 games
25%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
PiPi · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
494 picks · 491 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 563 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
370 picks · 179 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
286 picks · 543 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
268 picks · 377 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
261 picks · 515 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
261 picks · 152 bans
48%
Bristleback
Bristleback
257 picks · 499 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 29%
Hero pool strength65% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:35
Natus Vincere Junior 76%Edge 24%
The model gave 76% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Edge in 39:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealergotthejuice
56% · 109 games49% · 189 games
Phantom Assassinpayk
Phantom Assassin
Beastmaster
Beastmasterpma
52% · 298 games40% · 44 games
HuskarPiPi
Huskar
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNiku
57% · 233 games44% · 244 games
Sand KingVitaly
Sand King
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinZayac
54% · 114 games51% · 264 games
MuertaMichael
Muerta
Silencer
SilencerRiddys
46% · 131 game48% · 144 games
RingmasterYadomi
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed13:34
Natus Vincere Junior 74%Edge 26%
The model gave 74% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Edge in 42:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusagotthejuice
45% · 126 games47% · 197 games
Svenpayk
Sven
Tiny
TinyNiku
46% · 370 games58% · 387 games
Storm SpiritPiPi
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
Pangolierpma
38% · 328 games57% · 298 games
Sand KingVitaly
Sand King
Snapfire
SnapfireZayac
41% · 147 games62% · 125 games
Ancient ApparitionYadomi
Ancient Apparition
Elder Titan
Elder TitanRiddys
47% · 138 games59% · 102 games
Keeper of the LightMichael
Keeper of the Light
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 89%
Series resultEdge 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2