?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:2
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 41 game
51%
Batrider
Batrider
Ekki · 25 games
40%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 25 games
44%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 22 games
77%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ekki · 22 games
68%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Xibbe · 20 games
45%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Smiling Knight · 20 games
55%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 20 games
75%

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 29 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 18 games
61%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 18 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Malady · 17 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 16 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 16 games
63%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Quinn · 16 games
56%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Malady · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
494 picks · 491 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 563 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
370 picks · 179 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
286 picks · 543 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
268 picks · 377 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
261 picks · 515 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
261 picks · 152 bans
48%
Bristleback
Bristleback
257 picks · 499 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total85% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:21
AVULUS 30%Gaimin Gladiators 70%
The model gave 70% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 23:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckMo13ei
49% · 177 games43% · 119 games
MedusaAce
Medusa
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSmiling Knight
50% · 156 games49% · 113 games
SvenWatson
Sven
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerXibbe
53% · 167 games48% · 237 games
Sand KingQuinn
Sand King
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanFly
50% · 90 games48% · 272 games
JakirotOfu
Jakiro
Windranger
WindrangerdEsire
52% · 259 games56% · 108 games
Ancient ApparitionMalady
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct17:27
AVULUS 30%Gaimin Gladiators 70%
The model gave 70% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 25:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSmiling Knight
53% · 308 games49% · 380 games
BeastmasterQuinn
Beastmaster
Tiny
TinyMo13ei
52% · 501 game44% · 303 games
TerrorbladeWatson
Terrorblade
Kunkka
KunkkaXibbe
56% · 107 games53% · 173 games
TidehunterAce
Tidehunter
Ringmaster
RingmasterdEsire
49% · 233 games48% · 124 games
Bounty HuntertOfu
Bounty Hunter
Warlock
WarlockFly
51% · 231 game46% · 400 games
JakiroMalady
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 85%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2