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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 27 games
74%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 25 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 25 games
60%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 21 game
76%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mikoto · 21 game
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 17 games
53%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mikoto · 17 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 16 games
56%

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 43 games
47%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 40 games
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 34 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 27 games
44%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
62%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Skiter · 26 games
46%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sneyking · 22 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
494 picks · 491 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 563 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
370 picks · 179 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
286 picks · 543 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
268 picks · 377 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
261 picks · 515 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
261 picks · 152 bans
48%
Bristleback
Bristleback
257 picks · 499 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total83% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:25
Talon Esports 34%Team Falcons 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 22:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight23savage
48% · 330 games49% · 202 games
TerrorbladeSkiter
Terrorblade
Doom
DoomWs
55% · 245 games45% · 143 games
MarsATF
Mars
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMikoto
50% · 151 game56% · 220 games
Monkey KingMalr1ne
Monkey King
Mirana
MiranaKuku
51% · 116 games45% · 277 games
TuskSneyking
Tusk
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanJhocam
59% · 107 games42% · 107 games
RingmasterCr1t-
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct24:37
Talon Esports 29%Team Falcons 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 44:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorblade23savage
49% · 241 game58% · 249 games
DoomSkiter
Doom
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMikoto
47% · 313 games55% · 167 games
Nature's ProphetMalr1ne
Nature's Prophet
Sand King
Sand KingWs
47% · 249 games47% · 331 game
PangolierATF
Pangolier
Warlock
WarlockKuku
47% · 161 game54% · 166 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Slark
SlarkJhocam
44% · 59 games50% · 110 games
Bounty HunterCr1t-
Bounty Hunter
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 83%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2