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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 25 games
40%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 24 games
75%
Magnus
Magnussignature
SumaiL · 19 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
OmaR · 19 games
68%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
SumaiL · 17 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
OmaR · 16 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 15 games
53%
Mars
Marssignature
No!ob · 15 games
60%

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 22 games
45%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Panto · 21 game
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Nightfall · 19 games
58%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 19 games
74%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 19 games
58%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
62%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Nightfall · 13 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lorenof · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
490 picks · 490 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
407 picks · 561 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
368 picks · 176 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
284 picks · 540 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
266 picks · 374 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
261 picks · 150 bans
48%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
259 picks · 514 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
257 picks · 144 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 51%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:31
Nigma Galaxy 48%Aurora Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 31:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerGhost
54% · 188 games43% · 118 games
Phantom AssassinNightfall
Phantom Assassin
Kunkka
KunkkaSumaiL
47% · 126 games53% · 287 games
Tinykiyotaka
Tiny
Sand King
Sand KingNo!ob
53% · 291 game49% · 91 game
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
Magnus
Tinker
Tinkeryamich
55% · 142 games52% · 169 games
RingmasterMira
Ringmaster
Silencer
SilencerGH
47% · 203 games46% · 285 games
JakiroPanto
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed27:15
Nigma Galaxy 49%Aurora Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 37:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingGhost
46% · 185 games46% · 177 games
MedusaNightfall
Medusa
Leshrac
LeshracSumaiL
50% · 73 games55% · 262 games
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
Storm Spirit
Doom
DoomNo!ob
52% · 209 games46% · 213 games
Centaur WarrunnerTORONTOTOKYO
Centaur Warrunner
Windranger
Windrangeryamich
53% · 174 games46% · 77 games
Shadow ShamanMira
Shadow Shaman
Elder Titan
Elder TitanGH
53% · 126 games55% · 38 games
BanePanto
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2