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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 42 games
48%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 40 games
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 34 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 27 games
44%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
62%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Skiter · 25 games
48%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sneyking · 22 games
55%

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 29 games
76%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 18 games
61%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 18 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 16 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 16 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Malady · 16 games
44%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Quinn · 16 games
56%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Malady · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
493 picks · 491 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
407 picks · 560 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
370 picks · 174 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
284 picks · 541 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
268 picks · 374 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
260 picks · 144 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
260 picks · 515 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
260 picks · 150 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head5 – 7
Model total58% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:11
Team Falcons 45%Gaimin Gladiators 55%
The model gave 55% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 33:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSkiter
42% · 176 games45% · 227 games
MorphlingWatson
Morphling
Viper
ViperATF
58% · 24 games50% · 223 games
DoomAce
Doom
Monkey King
Monkey KingMalr1ne
56% · 220 games43% · 83 games
LeshracQuinn
Leshrac
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
54% · 114 games57% · 86 games
Ancient ApparitionMalady
Ancient Apparition
Tusk
TuskCr1t-
48% · 263 games53% · 178 games
WindrangertOfu
Windranger
Game 2prediction correct16:38
Team Falcons 45%Gaimin Gladiators 55%
The model gave 55% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 36:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomMalr1ne
51% · 271 game53% · 321 game
BristlebackAce
Bristleback
Pangolier
PangolierATF
45% · 421 game52% · 138 games
RazorWatson
Razor
Tiny
TinySkiter
50% · 548 games53% · 347 games
Ember SpiritQuinn
Ember Spirit
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSneyking
53% · 150 games48% · 364 games
JakiroMalady
Jakiro
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanCr1t-
49% · 124 games47% · 344 games
MuertatOfu
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2