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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 1:1
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 31 game
77%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 27 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 26 games
58%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 25 games
76%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Satanic · 25 games
72%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 23 games
74%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
No[o]ne · 22 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No[o]ne · 22 games
68%

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 27 games
74%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 25 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 25 games
60%
Lina
Linasignature
Mikoto · 21 game
76%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mikoto · 19 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 17 games
53%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mikoto · 17 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
492 picks · 491 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
406 picks · 557 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
367 picks · 174 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
283 picks · 538 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
265 picks · 374 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
260 picks · 144 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
260 picks · 513 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
260 picks · 150 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 32%
Hero pool strength55% PARIVISION
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total71% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:43
PARIVISION 62%Talon Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 51:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSatanic
44% · 155 games57% · 282 games
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierNo[o]ne
39% · 370 games49% · 247 games
Monkey King23savage
Monkey King
Sand King
Sand KingDM
47% · 250 games53% · 231 game
DoomWs
Doom
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light9Class
52% · 100 games54% · 74 games
TinkerJhocam
Tinker
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanDukalis
47% · 75 games58% · 116 games
Ancient ApparitionKuku
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct29:7
PARIVISION 62%Talon Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 27:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSatanic
42% · 140 games45% · 237 games
TerrorbladeWs
Terrorblade
Sand King
Sand KingNo[o]ne
54% · 273 games56% · 240 games
Monkey King23savage
Monkey King
Bristleback
BristlebackDM
56% · 277 games55% · 267 games
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Ringmaster
Ringmaster9Class
44% · 202 games51% · 217 games
WindrangerJhocam
Windranger
Elder Titan
Elder TitanDukalis
48% · 165 games47% · 96 games
PugnaKuku
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 71%
Accuracy by game1 of 2