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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 37 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 35 games
74%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 28 games
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 26 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 25 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
miCKe · 20 games
45%
Phoenix
Phoenix
iNSaNiA · 20 games
50%

Nigma Galaxy

Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 25 games
40%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 24 games
75%
Magnus
Magnussignature
No!ob · 20 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
OmaR · 19 games
68%
Batrider
Batrider
OmaR · 17 games
35%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
SumaiL · 17 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
OmaR · 16 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
496 picks · 489 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
404 picks · 553 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
365 picks · 173 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
282 picks · 537 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
264 picks · 372 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
260 picks · 518 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
260 picks · 150 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
259 picks · 145 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 48%
Hero pool strength54% Team Liquid
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total67% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:16
Team Liquid 57%Nigma Galaxy 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerV-Tune
53% · 105 games52% · 310 games
GyrocopterGhost
Gyrocopter
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
49% · 157 games48% · 183 games
Sand KingSumaiL
Sand King
Tiny
TinyNisha
50% · 373 games49% · 119 games
MedusaNo!ob
Medusa
Marci
MarciBoxi
42% · 86 games50% · 114 games
Elder TitanGH
Elder Titan
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitioniNSaNiA
60% · 93 games46% · 88 games
Shadow ShamanOmaR
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct32:30
Team Liquid 59%Nigma Galaxy 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 52:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerV-Tune
61% · 54 games46% · 281 game
MorphlingGhost
Morphling
Puck
PuckNisha
50% · 171 game49% · 213 games
DoomNo!ob
Doom
Sand King
Sand KingSabeRLight-
52% · 238 games46% · 95 games
SlardarSumaiL
Slardar
Muerta
MuertaBoxi
53% · 217 games50% · 103 games
WarlockGH
Warlock
Elder Titan
Elder TitaniNSaNiA
50% · 139 games47% · 127 games
RingmasterOmaR
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 67%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2