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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Batrider
Batrider
Tims · 22 games
59%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Mac · 21 game
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
JaCkky · 19 games
58%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Fbz · 19 games
47%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mac · 19 games
68%
Lion
Lion
Tims · 18 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 16 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Jaunuel · 15 games
73%

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 22 games
45%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 21 game
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Nightfall · 19 games
58%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 19 games
74%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 19 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lorenof · 13 games
38%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
69%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Panto · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
496 picks · 489 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
404 picks · 553 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
365 picks · 173 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
282 picks · 537 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
264 picks · 372 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
260 picks · 518 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
260 picks · 150 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
259 picks · 145 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total73% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:40
BOOM Esports 35%Aurora Gaming 65%
The model gave 65% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 43:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJaCkky
50% · 278 games49% · 197 games
DoomNightfall
Doom
Kunkka
KunkkaArmel
48% · 110 games55% · 225 games
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
Storm Spirit
Medusa
MedusaJabz
41% · 187 games53% · 156 games
Dark SeerTORONTOTOKYO
Dark Seer
Mirana
MiranaTims
53% · 115 games50% · 265 games
ClockwerkMira
Clockwerk
Elder Titan
Elder TitanJaunuel
50% · 181 game47% · 28 games
BanePanto
Bane
Game 2prediction correct15:29
BOOM Esports 38%Aurora Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 31:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeJaCkky
44% · 206 games56% · 110 games
Invokerkiyotaka
Invoker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritArmel
45% · 217 games52% · 238 games
MorphlingNightfall
Morphling
Timbersaw
TimbersawJabz
43% · 175 games54% · 276 games
BristlebackTORONTOTOKYO
Bristleback
Silencer
SilencerJaunuel
42% · 70 games59% · 98 games
Shadow ShamanMira
Shadow Shaman
Ringmaster
RingmasterTims
47% · 111 games60% · 57 games
Naga SirenPanto
Naga Siren
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 73%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2