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DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Falconsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 30 games
77%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 26 games
58%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 26 games
65%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Satanic · 25 games
72%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 24 games
75%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
DM · 23 games
74%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
No[o]ne · 22 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 21 game
76%

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 42 games
48%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 39 games
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 32 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 27 games
44%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
62%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Skiter · 25 games
48%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sneyking · 22 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
495 picks · 489 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
403 picks · 552 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
364 picks · 172 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
281 picks · 536 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
264 picks · 372 bans
53%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
260 picks · 517 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
260 picks · 150 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
259 picks · 145 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% PARIVISION
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total60% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:12
PARIVISION 56%Team Falcons 44%
The model gave 56% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 35:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSatanic
46% · 209 games53% · 165 games
TimbersawMalr1ne
Timbersaw
Tiny
TinyNo[o]ne
51% · 377 games54% · 296 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDM
51% · 204 games55% · 197 games
TidehunterSkiter
Tidehunter
Tinker
Tinker9Class
52% · 51 game47% · 282 games
WindrangerCr1t-
Windranger
Jakiro
JakiroDukalis
45% · 313 games48% · 214 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct19:13
PARIVISION 57%Team Falcons 43%
The model gave 57% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 30:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaSatanic
49% · 145 games48% · 274 games
BeastmasterMalr1ne
Beastmaster
Kunkka
KunkkaNo[o]ne
44% · 93 games48% · 69 games
AbaddonSkiter
Abaddon
Bristleback
BristlebackDM
56% · 273 games50% · 129 games
MarsATF
Mars
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light9Class
46% · 75 games59% · 137 games
Shadow DemonCr1t-
Shadow Demon
Ringmaster
RingmasterDukalis
50% · 98 games48% · 75 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 60%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2