DreamLeague Season 26 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Phoenix
GH · 25 games
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 24 games
Magnussignature
No!ob · 20 games
Tinysignature
OmaR · 19 games
Batrider
OmaR · 18 games
Earthshaker
SumaiL · 17 games
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 15 games
Marssignature
No!ob · 15 games
Shopify Rebellion
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 19 games
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 16 games
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 14 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 14 games
Magnussignature
Yopaj · 13 games
Earth Spirit
Yopaj · 12 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Timado · 12 games
Lycansignature
Pakazs · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
490 picks · 483 bans
Tiny
395 picks · 546 bans
Ringmaster
356 picks · 166 bans
Terrorblade
275 picks · 534 bans
Phantom Assassin
260 picks · 511 bans
Storm Spirit
259 picks · 369 bans
Muerta
258 picks · 145 bans
Tusk
257 picks · 148 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:9
Nigma Galaxy 51%Shopify Rebellion 49%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 24:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingGhost
TerrorbladeTimado
KunkkaSumaiL
Storm SpiritYopaj
DoomNo!ob
Sand KingDavai
Shadow ShamanOmaR
JakiroSkem
Ancient ApparitionGH
RikiHellscream
Game 2prediction missed34:25
Nigma Galaxy 48%Shopify Rebellion 52%
The model gave 52% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 39:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterGhost
MedusaTimado
DoomNo!ob
Ember SpiritYopaj
PuckSumaiL
TerrorbladeDavai
Ancient ApparitionGH
WindrangerHellscream
TuskOmaR
Shadow ShamanSkem
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 53%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2