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European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 35 games
34%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Retsu · 31 game
45%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 30 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 27 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
28%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 25 games
56%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Nefrit · 24 games
79%

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 28 games
32%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 26 games
58%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 26 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 26 games
31%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 24 games
42%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 20 games
45%
Muerta
Muerta
not me · 19 games
42%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
SSS · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
488 picks · 476 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
411 picks · 556 bans
52%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
349 picks · 159 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
286 picks · 535 bans
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
267 picks · 577 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
267 picks · 556 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
264 picks · 373 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
263 picks · 147 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total55% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:37
Zero Tenacity 54%One Move 46%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 52:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNande
49% · 194 games51% · 207 games
MorphlingEyesight
Morphling
Bristleback
BristlebackNefrit
52% · 410 games47% · 126 games
Marszvёzd
Mars
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainStojkov
43% · 158 games55% · 230 games
Monkey KingDifference
Monkey King
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPablo
55% · 80 games53% · 209 games
Muertanot me
Muerta
Elder Titan
Elder TitanLeBronDota
53% · 174 games42% · 244 games
TuskBb3px
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct36:11
Zero Tenacity 56%One Move 44%
The model gave 56% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 34:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNande
52% · 180 games49% · 233 games
MorphlingEyesight
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStojkov
53% · 330 games43% · 276 games
Dragon KnightDifference
Dragon Knight
Enigma
EnigmaNefrit
64% · 182 games44% · 139 games
Primal Beastzvёzd
Primal Beast
Earthshaker
EarthshakerPablo
49% · 143 games50% · 121 game
Ringmasternot me
Ringmaster
Elder Titan
Elder TitanLeBronDota
50% · 192 games47% · 258 games
ClockwerkBb3px
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 55%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2