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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 16 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 15 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 14 games
64%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Daxak · 11 games
73%
Batrider
Batridersignature
prblms · 11 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Rein · 11 games
45%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 10 games
60%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Rein · 10 games
70%

Shopify Rebellion

Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 18 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 16 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 16 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Yopaj · 15 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 14 games
50%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Pakazs · 13 games
69%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Timado · 13 games
69%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Timado · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
487 picks · 476 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 555 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
349 picks · 159 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
286 picks · 533 bans
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
267 picks · 575 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
266 picks · 555 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
263 picks · 373 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
262 picks · 147 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:47
Virtus.pro 41%Shopify Rebellion 59%
The model gave 59% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 1:11:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendLorenof
50% · 88 games56% · 132 games
Templar AssassinTimado
Templar Assassin
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinV-Tune
42% · 155 games46% · 231 game
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroDaxak
49% · 253 games57% · 193 games
Dark SeerDavai
Dark Seer
Slark
SlarkAntares
49% · 56 games57% · 86 games
Shadow ShamanSkem
Shadow Shaman
Warlock
WarlockRein
46% · 141 game52% · 51 game
RikiHellscream
Riki
Game 2prediction correct17:33
Virtus.pro 43%Shopify Rebellion 57%
The model gave 57% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 37:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaV-Tune
46% · 175 games52% · 232 games
GyrocopterTimado
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
56% · 350 games54% · 386 games
TinyYopaj
Tiny
Muerta
MuertaAntares
46% · 397 games55% · 274 games
BristlebackDavai
Bristleback
Abaddon
AbaddonDaxak
48% · 123 games49% · 138 games
WindrangerHellscream
Windranger
Silencer
SilencerRein
47% · 118 games47% · 133 games
Elder TitanSkem
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 65%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2