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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
AVULUSwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nine · 17 games
41%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 15 games
27%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nine · 15 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 14 games
36%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
23savage · 13 games
38%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 11 games
27%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Nine · 11 games
36%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 10 games
20%

AVULUS

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 37 games
51%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 26 games
46%
Batrider
Batrider
Ekki · 25 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mo13ei · 21 game
43%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Smiling Knight · 21 game
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Xibbe · 20 games
45%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 20 games
55%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 20 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
484 picks · 474 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
411 picks · 556 bans
52%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
344 picks · 159 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
286 picks · 534 bans
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
267 picks · 576 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
267 picks · 560 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
263 picks · 373 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
262 picks · 148 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 27%
Hero pool strength60% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total56% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:30
OG 44%AVULUS 56%
The model gave 56% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 32:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinShad
51% · 167 games52% · 195 games
TerrorbladeSmiling Knight
Terrorblade
Invoker
InvokerStormstormer
51% · 171 game49% · 248 games
TuskMo13ei
Tusk
Mars
MarsMikSa`
48% · 154 games54% · 114 games
EnigmaXibbe
Enigma
Windranger
WindrangerDaze
48% · 209 games50% · 67 games
Shadow ShamandEsire
Shadow Shaman
Ringmaster
RingmasterKidaro
46% · 221 game49% · 298 games
JakiroFly
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed27:12
OG 42%AVULUS 58%
The model gave 58% on AVULUS — the game was taken by OG in 31:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinShad
47% · 148 games57% · 168 games
GyrocopterSmiling Knight
Gyrocopter
Kunkka
KunkkaStormstormer
46% · 98 games52% · 188 games
Sand KingMo13ei
Sand King
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMikSa`
43% · 161 game54% · 95 games
EnigmaXibbe
Enigma
Ringmaster
RingmasterKidaro
47% · 123 games57% · 74 games
Shadow ShamanFly
Shadow Shaman
Riki
RikiDaze
49% · 38 games46% · 43 games
SlarkdEsire
Slark
Game 3prediction correct11:49
OG 43%AVULUS 57%
The model gave 57% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 39:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaShad
45% · 135 games55% · 125 games
Templar AssassinSmiling Knight
Templar Assassin
Kunkka
KunkkaStormstormer
33% · 96 games58% · 275 games
BristlebackMo13ei
Bristleback
Batrider
BatriderMikSa`
45% · 202 games60% · 163 games
Centaur WarrunnerXibbe
Centaur Warrunner
Night Stalker
Night StalkerDaze
44% · 111 games58% · 84 games
Shadow ShamanFly
Shadow Shaman
Jakiro
JakiroKidaro
50% · 277 games51% · 174 games
RingmasterdEsire
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 56%
Series resultAVULUS 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3