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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Runa Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
Fayde · 24 games
67%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 21 game
48%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 21 game
38%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 14 games
71%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
YamSun · 14 games
50%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Speeed · 13 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 11 games
45%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Bignum · 11 games
64%

Runa Team

Windranger
Windrangersignature
queezy · 12 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 11 games
73%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Hduo · 9 games
78%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
queezy · 7 games
71%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Hduo · 6 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 6 games
33%
Silencer
Silencer
Hduo · 5 games
60%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Shigetsu · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
483 picks · 473 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
414 picks · 562 bans
52%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
339 picks · 159 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
286 picks · 534 bans
48%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
271 picks · 571 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
269 picks · 581 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
265 picks · 504 bans
58%
Muerta
Muerta
265 picks · 149 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:32
Wildcard Gaming 58%Runa Team 42%
The model gave 58% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Runa Team in 28:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeLowskill
47% · 246 games44% · 393 games
TinyShigetsu
Tiny
Monkey King
Monkey KingRCY
54% · 219 games48% · 111 games
KunkkaAlberkaaa
Kunkka
Enigma
EnigmaFayde
58% · 116 games44% · 269 games
Batridernicky`cool
Batrider
Warlock
WarlockSpeeed
56% · 159 games61% · 60 games
Slarkqueezy
Slark
Tusk
TuskBignum
47% · 258 games45% · 165 games
RingmasterHduo
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed12:34
Wildcard Gaming 58%Runa Team 42%
The model gave 58% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Runa Team in 33:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetYamSun
53% · 146 games38% · 118 games
MedusaShigetsu
Medusa
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFayde
54% · 155 games59% · 166 games
DoomAlberkaaa
Doom
Tiny
TinyRCY
51% · 292 games48% · 60 games
Rikinicky`cool
Riki
Silencer
SilencerSpeeed
55% · 90 games50% · 173 games
RingmasterHduo
Ringmaster
Slark
SlarkBignum
51% · 49 games42% · 215 games
Tuskqueezy
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 69%
Series resultRuna Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2