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European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 0:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
selfhate · 13 games
46%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Actor · 12 games
92%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
selfhate · 9 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
selfhate · 8 games
38%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Ethereal · 8 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 7 games
43%
Muerta
Muerta
prblms · 7 games
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
mellojul · 7 games
29%

Zero Tenacity

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 35 games
34%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 32 games
44%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 30 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 27 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
41%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 26 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
28%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Nefrit · 24 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
482 picks · 472 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
415 picks · 567 bans
52%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
338 picks · 159 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
288 picks · 534 bans
48%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
277 picks · 572 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
270 picks · 581 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
266 picks · 507 bans
58%
Muerta
Muerta
266 picks · 149 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 55%
Hero pool strength56% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total51% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:34
Hydra 51%Zero Tenacity 49%
The model gave 51% on Hydra — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 49:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenselfhate
50% · 171 game47% · 197 games
MorphlingNande
Morphling
Timbersaw
TimbersawActor
52% · 145 games50% · 176 games
Dark SeerNefrit
Dark Seer
Tiny
Tinymellojul
47% · 372 games52% · 144 games
Monkey KingStojkov
Monkey King
55% · 94 games
EarthshakerPablo
Earthshaker
50% · 77 games
RingmasterLeBronDota
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct23:53
Hydra 50%Zero Tenacity 50%
The model gave 50% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 41:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursaselfhate
52% · 120 games42% · 73 games
UnderlordNefrit
Underlord
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendmellojul
44% · 85 games54% · 16 games
Faceless VoidNande
Faceless Void
Dark Seer
Dark SeerActor
46% · 170 games56% · 88 games
Monkey KingStojkov
Monkey King
64% · 25 games
Shadow ShamanPablo
Shadow Shaman
53% · 173 games
JakiroLeBronDota
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 51%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2