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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:1
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OGloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 17 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 16 games
63%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Yopaj · 16 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 14 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 14 games
50%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Pakazs · 13 games
69%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Yopaj · 13 games
69%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Timado · 12 games
58%

OG

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nine · 15 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 15 games
40%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nine · 15 games
53%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 14 games
29%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Nine · 12 games
42%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
23savage · 12 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 11 games
27%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 10 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
481 picks · 470 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
414 picks · 565 bans
52%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
338 picks · 158 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
286 picks · 534 bans
47%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
277 picks · 572 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
269 picks · 579 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
266 picks · 504 bans
58%
Muerta
Muerta
265 picks · 149 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 30%
Hero pool strength60% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total78% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:24
Shopify Rebellion 67%OG 33%
The model gave 67% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 41:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTimado
47% · 222 games55% · 126 games
LifestealerShad
Lifestealer
Primal Beast
Primal BeastDavai
46% · 224 games45% · 432 games
PangolierMikSa`
Pangolier
Tiny
TinyYopaj
47% · 495 games56% · 103 games
SlardarStormstormer
Slardar
Mirana
MiranaSkem
58% · 78 games45% · 319 games
MuertaDaze
Muerta
Riki
RikiHellscream
55% · 63 games54% · 102 games
Ancient ApparitionKidaro
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed15:35
Shopify Rebellion 68%OG 32%
The model gave 68% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by OG in 35:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTimado
53% · 314 games44% · 249 games
BeastmasterShad
Beastmaster
Medusa
MedusaDavai
46% · 167 games46% · 157 games
TerrorbladeMikSa`
Terrorblade
Kunkka
KunkkaYopaj
45% · 118 games49% · 179 games
Storm SpiritStormstormer
Storm Spirit
Tinker
TinkerSkem
57% · 105 games54% · 66 games
Keeper of the LightDaze
Keeper of the Light
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanHellscream
56% · 89 games51% · 142 games
Shadow DemonKidaro
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct38:6
Shopify Rebellion 68%OG 32%
The model gave 68% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 27:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTimado
52% · 293 games58% · 34 games
Faceless VoidShad
Faceless Void
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYopaj
52% · 335 games50% · 140 games
Dark SeerMikSa`
Dark Seer
Timbersaw
TimbersawDavai
55% · 183 games41% · 301 game
PangolierStormstormer
Pangolier
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightHellscream
55% · 115 games45% · 249 games
TuskDaze
Tusk
Bane
BaneSkem
65% · 37 games40% · 239 games
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 78%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3