Asian Champions League 2025 · BO5
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 3:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Team Tideboundloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Clockwerk
Poloson · 24 games
Tinyoften banned
Pyw · 24 games
Jakirosignature
天命 · 21 game
Muertasignature
Pyw · 20 games
Shadow Shamansignature
XinQ · 20 games
Terrorbladesignature
niu · 20 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 19 games
Beastmastersignature
niu · 18 games
Team Tidebound
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 31 game
Jakirosignature
y` · 29 games
Terrorbladesignature
shiro · 20 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 16 games
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 16 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 15 games
Windrangersignature
pLAnet · 15 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Faith_bian · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
478 picks · 470 bans
Tiny
414 picks · 565 bans
Ringmaster
338 picks · 158 bans
Terrorblade
284 picks · 532 bans
Phantom Assassin
279 picks · 576 bans
Beastmaster
270 picks · 578 bans
Bristleback
267 picks · 503 bans
Muerta
265 picks · 150 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 51%
Hero pool strength51% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total54% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct2:17
Xtreme Gaming 50%Team Tidebound 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 26:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverAme
Templar Assassinshiro
MedusaXxs
PuckNothingToSay
Sand KingXm
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
TinkerPoloson
Warlocky`
WindrangerXinQ
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
Game 2prediction missed20:4
Xtreme Gaming 49%Team Tidebound 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 26:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterAme
Ursashiro
Monkey KingXm
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
VenomancerXinQ
MedusaFaith_bian
TidehunterXxs
Night StalkerpLAnet
Elder TitanPoloson
Jakiroy`
Game 3prediction missed24:29
Xtreme Gaming 48%Team Tidebound 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 51:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyAme
Ursashiro
Monkey KingXm
PangolierNothingToSay
TidehunterXxs
Sand KingFaith_bian
WindrangerXinQ
GyrocopterpLAnet
Ancient ApparitionPoloson
Silencery`
Game 4prediction correct9:20
Xtreme Gaming 50%Team Tidebound 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 35:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinAme
Nature's Prophetshiro
Monkey KingXm
TerrorbladeFaith_bian
Sand KingXxs
TinyNothingToSay
ClockwerkPoloson
MuertapLAnet
MiranaXinQ
Ancient Apparitiony`
Game 5prediction correct24:6
Xtreme Gaming 50%Team Tidebound 50%
The model gave 50% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 39:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterAme
PuckNothingToSay
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
Nature's Prophetshiro
Sand KingXm
KunkkaFaith_bian
Ancient ApparitionPoloson
WindrangerpLAnet
Shadow DemonXinQ
Silencery`
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 54%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 3:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 5