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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lorenof · 17 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 16 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 16 games
69%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Daxak · 11 games
73%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 11 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Rein · 11 games
45%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
TA2000 · 11 games
45%
Batrider
Batridersignature
prblms · 10 games
60%

MOUZ

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 21 game
52%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 18 games
44%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
xsvampire · 16 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Force · 16 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Lowskill · 16 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Fly · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
467 picks · 465 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
404 picks · 569 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
331 picks · 151 bans
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
283 picks · 580 bans
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
279 picks · 520 bans
47%
Bristleback
Bristleback
270 picks · 489 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
265 picks · 570 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
264 picks · 150 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 45%
Hero pool strength55% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:10
Virtus.pro 63%MOUZ 37%
The model gave 63% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 34:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinV-Tune
46% · 155 games46% · 72 games
UnderlordKami
Underlord
Huskar
HuskarLorenof
53% · 46 games56% · 154 games
Dark Seerzeal
Dark Seer
Doom
DoomDaxak
50% · 186 games48% · 221 game
Ember SpiritW1sh-
Ember Spirit
Muerta
MuertaAntares
52% · 254 games54% · 85 games
Shadow ShamanSeleri
Shadow Shaman
Warlock
WarlockRein
48% · 140 games49% · 249 games
TuskEkki
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct33:11
Virtus.pro 65%MOUZ 35%
The model gave 65% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 30:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomV-Tune
55% · 231 game46% · 153 games
MedusaKami
Medusa
Morphling
MorphlingLorenof
49% · 245 games45% · 146 games
Dark Seerzeal
Dark Seer
Enigma
EnigmaDaxak
60% · 135 games52% · 216 games
Storm SpiritW1sh-
Storm Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanAntares
57% · 68 games45% · 95 games
RingmasterSeleri
Ringmaster
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRein
47% · 159 games44% · 228 games
TuskEkki
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 71%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2