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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 0:2
One Movewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Batrider
Batrider
queezy · 19 games
37%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Alberkaaa · 19 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 18 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
mrls · 17 games
65%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mirage · 16 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RESPECT · 14 games
36%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 14 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 13 games
38%

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 29 games
34%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 28 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 26 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 25 games
40%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 24 games
29%
Muerta
Muerta
not me · 22 games
45%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 19 games
47%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
466 picks · 464 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
404 picks · 567 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
327 picks · 151 bans
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
282 picks · 580 bans
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
277 picks · 518 bans
47%
Bristleback
Bristleback
269 picks · 487 bans
57%
Muerta
Muerta
264 picks · 150 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
263 picks · 570 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% HULIGANI
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total85% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:31
HULIGANI 72%One Move 28%
The model gave 72% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by One Move in 36:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusav1olent-
52% · 172 games43% · 227 games
MorphlingEyesight
Morphling
Beastmaster
Beastmastererase
55% · 426 games42% · 159 games
Marszvёzd
Mars
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMalik
53% · 263 games52% · 358 games
TinyDifference
Tiny
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanmrls
58% · 109 games49% · 280 games
JakiroBb3px
Jakiro
Elder Titan
Elder TitanRESPECT
49% · 195 games47% · 141 game
Ringmasternot me
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed15:28
HULIGANI 71%One Move 29%
The model gave 71% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by One Move in 32:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinv1olent-
52% · 225 games44% · 365 games
Dragon KnightEyesight
Dragon Knight
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMalik
59% · 164 games49% · 274 games
Bristlebackzvёzd
Bristleback
Tiny
Tinyerase
49% · 466 games46% · 61 game
LeshracDifference
Leshrac
Ringmaster
RingmasterRESPECT
51% · 167 games46% · 243 games
Terrorbladenot me
Terrorblade
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntermrls
51% · 119 games52% · 198 games
WarlockBb3px
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 85%
Series resultOne Move 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2