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European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:1
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Passion UAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Actor · 12 games
92%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
selfhate · 11 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 8 games
38%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
selfhate · 8 games
38%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
selfhate · 8 games
75%
Muerta
Muerta
prblms · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Ethereal · 7 games
71%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
mellojul · 6 games
50%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 28 games
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 27 games
41%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 25 games
72%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
niche · 25 games
44%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 22 games
45%
Muerta
Muerta
Fernans · 20 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Batyuk · 18 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
kreker · 18 games
39%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
465 picks · 457 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
402 picks · 569 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
325 picks · 148 bans
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
283 picks · 581 bans
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
279 picks · 514 bans
47%
Bristleback
Bristleback
269 picks · 488 bans
58%
Muerta
Muerta
267 picks · 151 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
263 picks · 566 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 36%
Hero pool strength55% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total68% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:48
Hydra 61%Passion UA 39%
The model gave 61% on Hydra — the game was taken by Passion UA in 39:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetselfhate
50% · 172 games53% · 120 games
Monkey KingCrystallize
Monkey King
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painmellojul
45% · 149 games52% · 89 games
DoomBatyuk
Doom
Kunkka
KunkkaActor
53% · 154 games54% · 121 game
Tinyniche
Tiny
51% · 35 games
Tinkerkreker
Tinker
42% · 110 games
WindrangerQBFY
Windranger
Game 2prediction correct49:17
Hydra 60%Passion UA 40%
The model gave 60% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 46:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursaselfhate
53% · 183 games51% · 112 games
Dark SeerBatyuk
Dark Seer
Kunkka
Kunkkamellojul
51% · 93 games46% · 89 games
DoomCrystallize
Doom
Underlord
UnderlordActor
48% · 144 games56% · 151 game
Tinyniche
Tiny
43% · 32 games
Warlockkreker
Warlock
50% · 36 games
SlarkQBFY
Slark
Game 3prediction correct18:3
Hydra 62%Passion UA 38%
The model gave 62% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 14:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerActor
57% · 241 game48% · 153 games
SvenCrystallize
Sven
Monkey King
Monkey Kingselfhate
55% · 219 games44% · 285 games
Beastmasterniche
Beastmaster
Tiny
Tinymellojul
51% · 370 games44% · 102 games
MedusaBatyuk
Medusa
49% · 174 games
WindrangerQBFY
Windranger
45% · 116 games
Ringmasterkreker
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 68%
Series resultHydra 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3