European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 29 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 28 games
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 26 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 25 games
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 24 games
Muerta
not me · 22 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 19 games
Marcisignature
not me · 18 games
Nemiga Gaming
Pangolieroften banned
Miyaoo · 9 games
Sand Kingoften banned
спортик · 9 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Miyaoo · 7 games
Jakiro
monodrama · 7 games
Lion
Shishak · 7 games
Phoenixoften banned
monodrama · 7 games
Tinyoften banned
спортик · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
464 picks · 457 bans
Tiny
403 picks · 567 bans
Ringmaster
324 picks · 148 bans
Phantom Assassin
285 picks · 590 bans
Terrorblade
278 picks · 513 bans
Muerta
271 picks · 153 bans
Bristleback
270 picks · 492 bans
Beastmaster
269 picks · 566 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% One Move
Head-to-head6 – 1
Model total68% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
One Move 68%Nemiga Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move.
Game 2prediction correct
One Move 68%Nemiga Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 68%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2