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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Batrider
Batrider
queezy · 19 games
37%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Alberkaaa · 19 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 18 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
mrls · 16 games
69%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mirage · 16 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RESPECT · 14 games
36%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 14 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 13 games
38%

Shopify Rebellion

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 16 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 15 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 14 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 14 games
50%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Pakazs · 13 games
69%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Yopaj · 13 games
69%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Skem · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
463 picks · 454 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
403 picks · 567 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
323 picks · 148 bans
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
286 picks · 591 bans
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
278 picks · 512 bans
47%
Muerta
Muerta
271 picks · 151 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
269 picks · 564 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
269 picks · 491 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:27
HULIGANI 47%Shopify Rebellion 53%
The model gave 53% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 38:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetv1olent-
52% · 141 game47% · 224 games
GyrocopterTimado
Gyrocopter
Medusa
MedusaMalik
46% · 144 games48% · 134 games
KunkkaYopaj
Kunkka
Sand King
Sand Kingerase
50% · 214 games55% · 221 game
Dark SeerInfernal
Dark Seer
Jakiro
JakiroRESPECT
51% · 255 games49% · 150 games
BatriderHellscream
Batrider
Ringmaster
Ringmastermrls
51% · 138 games52% · 163 games
Ancient ApparitionSkem
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct17:23
HULIGANI 46%Shopify Rebellion 54%
The model gave 54% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 37:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingv1olent-
51% · 315 games50% · 121 game
LunaTimado
Luna
Timbersaw
Timbersawerase
49% · 222 games55% · 241 game
BristlebackInfernal
Bristleback
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
45% · 232 games49% · 316 games
TinyYopaj
Tiny
Silencer
SilencerRESPECT
49% · 94 games48% · 159 games
WindrangerHellscream
Windranger
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanmrls
46% · 83 games56% · 109 games
Elder TitanSkem
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 59%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2