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European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 23 games
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
ariel · 18 games
44%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 18 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
мистер мораль · 17 games
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 15 games
60%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
PERDAN4IK · 15 games
40%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 14 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 13 games
31%

Zero Tenacity

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 38 games
37%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 35 games
46%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 30 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 27 games
52%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 27 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 27 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
41%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Stojkov · 25 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
463 picks · 454 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
403 picks · 567 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
323 picks · 148 bans
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
287 picks · 592 bans
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
278 picks · 512 bans
47%
Muerta
Muerta
271 picks · 151 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
269 picks · 566 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
269 picks · 492 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% 4Pirates
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total53% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
4Pirates 53%Zero Tenacity 47%
The model gave 53% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates.
Game 2prediction correct
4Pirates 53%Zero Tenacity 47%
The model gave 53% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates.
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 53%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2