DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
9Pandaswin 1:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Blue Submarineloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
9Pandas
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 11 games
Tinysignature
erase · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
laise · 10 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 9 games
Muerta
jesv · 9 games
Dark Willowsignature
yamich · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 8 games
Elder Titansignature
Solo · 8 games
Blue Submarine
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
400 picks · 495 bans
Muerta
373 picks · 285 bans
Tusk
369 picks · 414 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 556 bans
Batrider
325 picks · 382 bans
Beastmaster
322 picks · 722 bans
Lion
311 picks · 144 bans
Phoenix
293 picks · 253 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:10
9Pandas 68%Blue Submarine 32%
The model gave 68% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 31:36.
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 68%
Series result9Pandas 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1