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European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandaswin 2:1
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Dragon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 8 games
75%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 7 games
71%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
DarkLord^ · 6 games
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
yamich · 6 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
laise · 6 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Solo · 6 games
83%
Tiny
Tinysignature
erase · 6 games
83%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 26 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 25 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 25 games
36%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 21 game
48%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 18 games
44%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Mary_y · 18 games
44%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
lil pleb · 17 games
65%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
488 picks · 649 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
453 picks · 520 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
386 picks · 566 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
375 picks · 189 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
353 picks · 390 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
335 picks · 253 bans
51%
Invoker
Invoker
326 picks · 904 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
320 picks · 661 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 59%
Hero pool strength58% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% Dragon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:39
9Pandas 40%Dragon Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 42:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaDarkLord^
49% · 135 games51% · 182 games
Templar Assassinrincyq
Templar Assassin
Terrorblade
Terrorbladelaise
43% · 117 games53% · 212 games
PuckPanda
Puck
Invoker
Invokererase
46% · 164 games59% · 131 game
BristlebackInfernal
Bristleback
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSolo
50% · 292 games52% · 121 game
Ogre MagiMary_y
Ogre Magi
Lion
Lionjesv
50% · 202 games48% · 264 games
Dark Willowxsvampire
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed30:24
9Pandas 41%Dragon Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 38:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingDarkLord^
54% · 145 games49% · 117 games
Broodmotherrincyq
Broodmother
Doom
Doomlaise
49% · 159 games43% · 102 games
Queen of PainPanda
Queen of Pain
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiriterase
58% · 134 games45% · 102 games
VisageInfernal
Visage
Grimstroke
Grimstrokejesv
46% · 40 games50% · 318 games
Tuskxsvampire
Tusk
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSolo
52% · 214 games53% · 53 games
LichMary_y
Lich
Game 3prediction missed33:18
9Pandas 43%Dragon Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 37:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterDarkLord^
49% · 263 games43% · 45 games
Broodmotherrincyq
Broodmother
Tiny
Tinyerase
51% · 253 games51% · 139 games
BrewmasterInfernal
Brewmaster
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerlaise
62% · 51 game41% · 220 games
MorphlingPanda
Morphling
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanjesv
49% · 38 games56% · 52 games
Ogre MagiMary_y
Ogre Magi
Undying
UndyingSolo
51% · 27 games53% · 176 games
Dark Willowxsvampire
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon Esports · 66%
Series result9Pandas 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3