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ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
9Pandasloss 1:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Techies
Techies
Antares · 37 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 33 games
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MieRo · 21 game
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Solo · 20 games
55%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 19 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
kiyotaka · 17 games
65%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
kiyotaka · 15 games
47%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 15 games
73%

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 26 games
65%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 21 game
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 21 game
71%
Riki
Rikisignature
Matthew · 20 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 18 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 18 games
61%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Panda · 17 games
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1005 picks · 707 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
629 picks · 462 bans
52%
Disruptor
Disruptor
583 picks · 428 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
560 picks · 905 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
522 picks · 395 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
517 picks · 363 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
510 picks · 1204 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
500 picks · 1096 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:33
9Pandas 49%Evil Geniuses 51%
The model gave 51% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 33:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomMieRo
52% · 294 games47% · 94 games
AlchemistPakazs
Alchemist
Ursa
UrsaRAMZES666
53% · 143 games55% · 52 games
Dark SeerWisper
Dark Seer
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painkiyotaka
43% · 104 games48% · 285 games
TuskChris Luck
Tusk
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAntares
51% · 134 games56% · 261 game
ClockwerkMatthew
Clockwerk
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRodjER
47% · 252 games48% · 235 games
EnchantressPanda
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed36:18
9Pandas 49%Evil Geniuses 51%
The model gave 51% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 39:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinkiyotaka
51% · 171 game50% · 177 games
MorphlingPakazs
Morphling
Riki
RikiRAMZES666
50% · 108 games49% · 242 games
DoomWisper
Doom
Underlord
UnderlordMieRo
55% · 74 games46% · 118 games
KunkkaChris Luck
Kunkka
Rubick
RubickAntares
53% · 548 games49% · 278 games
EnchantressPanda
Enchantress
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRodjER
48% · 244 games50% · 330 games
ClockwerkMatthew
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2