?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandasloss 1:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Evil Geniuseswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Techies
Techiesoften banned
Antares · 50 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 39 games
49%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 27 games
70%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 26 games
62%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 24 games
71%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
MieRo · 22 games
59%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Solo · 22 games
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MieRo · 21 game
48%

Evil Geniuses

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 29 games
66%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 29 games
48%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 27 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Wisper · 27 games
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 25 games
68%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Panda · 24 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Wisper · 23 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
725 picks · 527 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
590 picks · 513 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
559 picks · 1091 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
555 picks · 1245 bans
57%
Techies
Techies
535 picks · 590 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
470 picks · 938 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
468 picks · 1060 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
458 picks · 656 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:32
9Pandas 43%Evil Geniuses 57%
The model gave 57% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 33:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linakiyotaka
48% · 196 games50% · 130 games
MedusaPakazs
Medusa
Juggernaut
JuggernautRAMZES666
57% · 72 games51% · 213 games
Primal BeastChris Luck
Primal Beast
Doom
DoomMieRo
49% · 306 games47% · 76 games
Legion CommanderWisper
Legion Commander
Techies
TechiesAntares
54% · 269 games50% · 641 game
RubickMatthew
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptorSolo
53% · 373 games40% · 156 games
Skywrath MagePanda
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction missed44:22
9Pandas 42%Evil Geniuses 58%
The model gave 58% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 54:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
52% · 248 games47% · 70 games
Anti-MagePakazs
Anti-Mage
Morphling
MorphlingRAMZES666
54% · 208 games53% · 162 games
LinaChris Luck
Lina
Enigma
EnigmaMieRo
52% · 186 games50% · 340 games
Primal BeastWisper
Primal Beast
Doom
DoomAntares
52% · 190 games43% · 454 games
UndyingPanda
Undying
Disruptor
DisruptorSolo
52% · 244 games42% · 50 games
LionMatthew
Lion
Game 3prediction correct15:26
9Pandas 44%Evil Geniuses 56%
The model gave 56% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 35:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerRAMZES666
50% · 174 games53% · 129 games
Naga SirenPakazs
Naga Siren
Broodmother
BroodmotherMieRo
52% · 221 game48% · 172 games
Keeper of the LightWisper
Keeper of the Light
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
50% · 201 game45% · 271 game
TinyChris Luck
Tiny
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAntares
50% · 174 games51% · 111 games
Spirit BreakerMatthew
Spirit Breaker
Pugna
PugnaSolo
53% · 118 games48% · 205 games
UndyingPanda
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 66%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3