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The International 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandasloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 44 games
61%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 42 games
64%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
RAMZES666 · 35 games
74%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 31 game
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 29 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 28 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 26 games
46%
Techies
Techies
Antares · 24 games
50%

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 35 games
74%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 33 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
dyrachyo · 31 game
58%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 30 games
63%
Techies
Techiessignature
tOfu · 29 games
69%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 27 games
52%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Ace · 26 games
92%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 25 games
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
214 picks · 270 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
207 picks · 102 bans
41%
Pangolier
Pangolier
196 picks · 418 bans
54%
Sven
Sven
185 picks · 262 bans
57%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
171 picks · 97 bans
55%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
167 picks · 170 bans
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
160 picks · 151 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
159 picks · 342 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head2 – 5
Model total76% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:20
9Pandas 36%Gaimin Gladiators 64%
The model gave 64% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 19:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverRAMZES666
56% · 8 games35% · 23 games
BristlebackAce
Bristleback
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyerkiyotaka
little data42% · 46 games
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
Chaos Knight
Wraith King
Wraith KingMieRo
57% · 16 games50% · 57 games
KunkkaQuinn
Kunkka
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAntares
58% · 66 games58% · 18 games
ChenSeleri
Chen
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorSolo
51% · 77 games40% · 23 games
MuertatOfu
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct14:29
9Pandas 36%Gaimin Gladiators 64%
The model gave 64% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 32:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenRAMZES666
56% · 75 games46% · 205 games
Terrorbladedyrachyo
Terrorblade
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerkiyotaka
52% · 77 games49% · 32 games
BristlebackAce
Bristleback
Doom
DoomMieRo
51% · 221 game50% · 189 games
Primal BeastQuinn
Primal Beast
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAntares
49% · 53 games46% · 152 games
PhoenixSeleri
Phoenix
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorSolo
54% · 195 games47% · 43 games
MuertatOfu
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 76%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2