European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
9Pandas
Weaversignature
sayuw · 10 games
Elder Titansignature
Solo · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 6 games
Undying
Solo · 5 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Alberkaaa · 4 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 4 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 4 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
DarkLord^ · 4 games
Hydra
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
Underlord
Actor · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Actor · 5 games
Dark Willow
ani-san · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 5 games
Snapfire
ani-san · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
Ethereal · 4 games
Rubick
ani-san · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
434 picks · 562 bans
Clockwerk
376 picks · 379 bans
Pangolier
320 picks · 441 bans
Luna
318 picks · 377 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 573 bans
Dark Willow
281 picks · 151 bans
Dragon Knight
264 picks · 331 bans
Sand King
257 picks · 755 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength54% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:12
9Pandas 67%Hydra 33%
The model gave 67% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 28:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightDarkLord^
Earth Spiritselfhate
Pangoliererase
UnderlordActor
Legion CommanderATF
MuertaAstral
Dark Willowyamich
Shadow DemonSolo
Game 2prediction correct42:14
9Pandas 68%Hydra 32%
The model gave 68% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 26:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaDarkLord^
Void Spiritselfhate
TidehunterATF
Primal BeastActor
Monkey Kingerase
Dark WillowAstral
Invokeryamich
Shadow DemonSolo
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 79%
Series result9Pandas 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2