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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
9Pandasloss 1:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:1
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Techies
Techiesoften banned
Antares · 48 games
52%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 43 games
47%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 40 games
70%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 37 games
62%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 33 games
64%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 33 games
73%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 30 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 26 games
46%

LGD Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
niu · 30 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 28 games
54%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 23 games
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 22 games
45%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 22 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 20 games
75%
Techies
Techiessignature
pLAnet · 20 games
75%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 19 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
639 picks · 687 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
514 picks · 338 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
449 picks · 971 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
416 picks · 927 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 860 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
390 picks · 351 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
384 picks · 1002 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
382 picks · 448 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total53% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:25
9Pandas 49%LGD Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 38:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautRAMZES666
45% · 73 games50% · 256 games
Terrorbladeshiro
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
53% · 152 games50% · 139 games
WindrangerNothingToSay
Windranger
Doom
DoomMieRo
50% · 213 games46% · 103 games
Marsniu
Mars
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAntares
50% · 140 games53% · 215 games
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
Keeper of the Light
Silencer
SilencerSolo
51% · 161 game53% · 26 games
Baney`
Bane
Game 2prediction missed28:16
9Pandas 49%LGD Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 33:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void Spiritkiyotaka
51% · 215 games55% · 153 games
Medusashiro
Medusa
Juggernaut
JuggernautRAMZES666
43% · 114 games52% · 163 games
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
Storm Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaMieRo
53% · 253 games49% · 175 games
Timbersawniu
Timbersaw
Doom
DoomAntares
43% · 371 game47% · 386 games
RubickpLAnet
Rubick
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorSolo
62% · 39 games52% · 115 games
Dawnbreakery`
Dawnbreaker
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2