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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandaswin 2:0
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Tiny
Tinysignature
erase · 14 games
71%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 12 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 11 games
18%
Muerta
Muerta
jesv · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 11 games
55%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 11 games
64%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 10 games
40%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Solo · 10 games
70%

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 19 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Zayac · 16 games
56%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 14 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
BOOM · 13 games
46%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Zayac · 13 games
38%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Nefrit · 13 games
77%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 12 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Malady · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
409 picks · 522 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
400 picks · 326 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
366 picks · 385 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 572 bans
44%
Lion
Lion
345 picks · 171 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
340 picks · 426 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
332 picks · 777 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
320 picks · 471 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% 9Pandas
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total69% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed49:19
9Pandas 43%Natus Vincere 57%
The model gave 57% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 1:03:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightV-Tune
52% · 255 games41% · 24 games
BloodseekerShad
Bloodseeker
Tiny
Tinyerase
57% · 299 games42% · 138 games
LinaSancity
Lina
Lion
Lionlupsione
54% · 241 game46% · 222 games
BeastmasterBOOM
Beastmaster
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerlaise
50% · 55 games47% · 239 games
Dark WillowQBFY
Dark Willow
Elder Titan
Elder TitanSolo
57% · 107 games49% · 334 games
Shadow DemonKaori
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed29:13
9Pandas 40%Natus Vincere 60%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 35:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinV-Tune
32% · 31 game54% · 191 game
Templar AssassinSancity
Templar Assassin
Bristleback
Bristlebacklaise
51% · 139 games51% · 199 games
DoomShad
Doom
Pangolier
Pangoliererase
43% · 426 games48% · 179 games
MagnusBOOM
Magnus
Lion
Lionlupsione
45% · 307 games68% · 129 games
ChenKaori
Chen
Lich
LichSolo
39% · 74 games60% · 279 games
Shadow DemonQBFY
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 69%
Series result9Pandas 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2