ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandaswin 2:0series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
9Pandas
Tinysignature
erase · 17 games
Undyingsignature
Solo · 13 games
Muerta
jesv · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 12 games
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 12 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 11 games
Elder Titansignature
Solo · 11 games
Lion
lupsione · 11 games
Natus Vincere
Dark Willow
QBFY · 19 games
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 19 games
Tinysignature
Sancity · 15 games
Beastmasteroften banned
BOOM · 14 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 14 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Sancity · 13 games
Tuskoften banned
Zayac · 13 games
Underlordsignature
Nefrit · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
475 picks · 392 bans
Clockwerk
439 picks · 549 bans
Batrider
397 picks · 503 bans
Lion
392 picks · 208 bans
Gyrocopter
391 picks · 636 bans
Phoenix
382 picks · 429 bans
Pangolier
365 picks · 579 bans
Beastmaster
347 picks · 889 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% 9Pandas
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total69% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:6
9Pandas 41%Natus Vincere 59%
The model gave 59% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 35:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinV-Tune
Naga SirenShad
Earthshakererase
PangolierSancity
Night Stalkerlaise
BristlebackBOOM
Shadow Demonlupsione
EnchantressKaori
Elder TitanSolo
Shadow ShamanQBFY
Game 2prediction missed
9Pandas 31%Natus Vincere 69%
The model gave 69% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by 9Pandas.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 69%
Series result9Pandas 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2