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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandasloss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
One Movewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Tiny
Tinysignature
erase · 15 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 12 games
58%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 12 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 11 games
18%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Solo · 11 games
73%
Muerta
Muerta
jesv · 11 games
45%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 11 games
64%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 10 games
40%

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 24 games
46%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 21 game
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Difference · 20 games
65%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 19 games
37%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 18 games
61%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 18 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
not me · 15 games
73%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
SSS · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
470 picks · 385 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
431 picks · 549 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
389 picks · 495 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
381 picks · 617 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
381 picks · 203 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
370 picks · 417 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 585 bans
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
342 picks · 873 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% 9Pandas
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total57% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:35
9Pandas 54%One Move 46%
The model gave 54% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by One Move in 46:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinV-Tune
35% · 45 games57% · 164 games
WeaverWoE
Weaver
Tiny
Tinyerase
49% · 351 game53% · 254 games
DoomSSS
Doom
Phoenix
Phoenixlaise
48% · 362 games54% · 213 games
Ember SpiritDifference
Ember Spirit
Undying
UndyingSolo
50% · 60 games46% · 230 games
Snapfirenot me
Snapfire
Lion
Lionlupsione
52% · 159 games54% · 116 games
Ogre Magiso bad
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct28:35
9Pandas 57%One Move 43%
The model gave 57% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 46:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinV-Tune
57% · 72 games48% · 93 games
Void SpiritWoE
Void Spirit
Tidehunter
Tidehunterlaise
49% · 105 games51% · 248 games
BeastmasterSSS
Beastmaster
Tiny
Tinyerase
56% · 438 games40% · 409 games
PangolierDifference
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixSolo
50% · 339 games44% · 396 games
Batridernot me
Batrider
Lion
Lionlupsione
52% · 313 games56% · 121 game
Ogre Magiso bad
Ogre Magi
Game 3prediction missed15:24
9Pandas 53%One Move 47%
The model gave 53% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by One Move in 44:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerV-Tune
52% · 62 games53% · 47 games
ClinkzWoE
Clinkz
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiriterase
48% · 177 games58% · 158 games
DawnbreakerSSS
Dawnbreaker
Beastmaster
Beastmasterlaise
49% · 250 games48% · 376 games
PangolierDifference
Pangolier
Muerta
Muertalupsione
51% · 234 games49% · 150 games
Ogre Magiso bad
Ogre Magi
Phoenix
PhoenixSolo
43% · 259 games53% · 251 game
Lionnot me
Lion
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 57%
Series resultOne Move 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3