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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandaswin 2:1
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.proloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Techies
Techiesoften banned
Antares · 48 games
52%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 43 games
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 35 games
63%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 33 games
73%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 32 games
75%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 31 game
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 28 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 26 games
50%

Virtus.pro

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 20 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
krylat · 15 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 14 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Fng · 14 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
sayuw · 13 games
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 12 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
sayuw · 11 games
73%
Rubick
Rubick
sayuw · 11 games
27%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
639 picks · 691 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
494 picks · 323 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
449 picks · 985 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
403 picks · 856 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
401 picks · 935 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
392 picks · 353 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
381 picks · 1008 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
379 picks · 450 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 42%
Hero pool strength54% 9Pandas
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:36
9Pandas 63%Virtus.pro 37%
The model gave 63% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 36:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeRAMZES666
48% · 319 games51% · 203 games
MorphlingKiritych
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
51% · 302 games49% · 271 game
TinySquad1x
Tiny
Axe
AxeMieRo
49% · 58 games49% · 212 games
DoomNoticed
Doom
Chen
ChenSolo
56% · 153 games52% · 154 games
Keeper of the Lightsayuw
Keeper of the Light
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAntares
46% · 237 games49% · 229 games
UndyingFng
Undying
Game 2prediction correct28:11
9Pandas 63%Virtus.pro 37%
The model gave 63% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 31:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautRAMZES666
41% · 108 games57% · 194 games
MedusaKiritych
Medusa
Pangolier
Pangolierkiyotaka
53% · 324 games52% · 400 games
TinySquad1x
Tiny
Visage
VisageMieRo
51% · 129 games54% · 89 games
ChenFng
Chen
Doom
DoomAntares
47% · 287 games50% · 171 game
Keeper of the Lightsayuw
Keeper of the Light
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSolo
47% · 114 games46% · 108 games
TidehunterNoticed
Tidehunter
Game 3prediction correct31:16
9Pandas 65%Virtus.pro 35%
The model gave 65% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 29:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetRAMZES666
55% · 157 games46% · 209 games
TerrorbladeKiritych
Terrorblade
Enigma
EnigmaMieRo
56% · 193 games46% · 111 games
MarsNoticed
Mars
Windranger
Windrangerkiyotaka
48% · 143 games50% · 186 games
Void SpiritSquad1x
Void Spirit
Doom
DoomAntares
52% · 295 games45% · 135 games
Skywrath Magesayuw
Skywrath Mage
Pugna
PugnaSolo
55% · 194 games48% · 341 game
UndyingFng
Undying
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 74%
Series result9Pandas 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3