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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandasloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Mars
Marsoften banned
Alberkaaa · 13 games
46%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Solo · 10 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DarkLord^ · 9 games
44%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Antares · 8 games
63%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Alberkaaa · 8 games
38%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Solo · 7 games
43%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
DarkLord^ · 7 games
71%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Solo · 7 games
100%

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 30 games
60%
Techies
Techies
rue · 28 games
46%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 24 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 20 games
50%
Luna
Lunasignature
Satanic · 18 games
61%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 18 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 18 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Satanic · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 695 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
436 picks · 205 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
406 picks · 562 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
398 picks · 422 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
361 picks · 629 bans
47%
Rubick
Rubick
356 picks · 167 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
343 picks · 893 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
339 picks · 657 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 49%
Hero pool strength51% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total58% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:19
9Pandas 47%Yellow Submarine 53%
The model gave 53% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 37:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
Meepokiyotaka
53% · 55 games57% · 22 games
Chaos KnightSatanic
Chaos Knight
Windranger
WindrangerDarkLord^
45% · 147 games47% · 115 games
Ember Spiriterase
Ember Spirit
Axe
AxeAlberkaaa
54% · 46 games55% · 60 games
Beastmasterkasane
Beastmaster
Weaver
Weaversayuw
57% · 135 games48% · 220 games
Rubickrue
Rubick
Undying
UndyingSolo
45% · 152 games47% · 118 games
Phoenixasdekor_r
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct14:26
9Pandas 46%Yellow Submarine 54%
The model gave 54% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 37:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterDarkLord^
48% · 234 games45% · 169 games
TerrorbladeSatanic
Terrorblade
Tiny
Tinykiyotaka
51% · 277 games51% · 172 games
Storm Spiriterase
Storm Spirit
Mars
MarsAlberkaaa
49% · 224 games52% · 53 games
Underlordkasane
Underlord
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsayuw
44% · 147 games53% · 269 games
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
Crystal Maiden
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorSolo
59% · 94 games52% · 313 games
Shadow Demonrue
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 58%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2